"A rise of just one metre in sea level would force 23.5 million people to migrate! You may say that the world has always experienced periods of drought or flooding. This is true. But never at such intervals: in the past, in the Sahel countries for example, there was a major drought every 7 to 10 years, but now it's every 2 to 3 years ... An extreme climatic event, such as a drought or flood, deprives people of their usual means of subsistence. They can mobilise their assets and resources once to cope with a loss of harvest, but not twice ... For many people, the only solution is to leave their traditional homes", insists Audrey Martinenq, Head of Education Policy Analysis for Aide et Action International and author of the Coup de Chaud Report on Education.
In 2010, 38 million people were forced to move due to the impacts of climate change. This number is expected to rise to 200 million by 2050. But in countries where urbanisation rates are already very high, coping with larger population influxes will be problematic. In particular, this will pose problems in terms of access to basic social services, water and food, and will have dramatic consequences for the population: as the infant mortality rate is already high in shanty towns (10 to 20 times higher than the mortality rate in rural areas), a new population influx could worsen the living conditions of families.
For the 2.7 billion people living in countries beset by political, economic and social difficulties, the effects of climate change will create additional risks of violent conflict. A reactivation of conflicts in so-called fragile states is to be feared. This is all the more worrying given that 42% of children excluded from education live in politically unstable countries.
